What Comes Next in the Standoff Between the U.S. and Iran?

President Joe Biden entered agency promising to return nan U.S. to nan Iran atomic deal, formally known arsenic nan Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aliases JCPOA. But doing truthful has proven tricky for Biden’s administration, successful portion because of nan analyzable authorities surrounding nan woody successful some Washington and Tehran, but besides because of nan tense relations betwixt nan 2 countries, which soured importantly nether Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump.

In May 2018, erstwhile Trump followed done connected a run committedness to retreat nan U.S. from nan 2015 multilateral woody limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment program, Tehran initially reacted by adopting a posture of strategical patience. But opening successful early 2019, Iran gradually began to breach its obligations nether nan atomic deal, exceeding limits connected its stockpile of enriched uranium and nan level to which it is enriched. Iran subsequently constricted nan International Atomic Energy Agency’s expertise to show its atomic program.

Supporters of nan Iran atomic woody successful Washington and Europe hoped that nan Biden management would quickly return nan U.S. to compliance pinch nan statement by removing unilateral sanctions, while besides pursuing follow-on talks to reside Iran’s rocket programme and location behavior. But negotiations successful Vienna to resuscitate nan JCPOA proved to beryllium much difficult than anticipated, moreover arsenic opponents of nan woody successful nan U.S. and Iran see their options.

More recently, ongoing celebrated protests successful Iran complete nan rule requiring women to deterioration a head-covering—sparked by nan decease of a young female while successful nan custody of nan morality police—as good arsenic Tehran’s willingness to proviso Russia pinch drones and missiles for nan warfare successful Ukraine person made nan governmental optics of renewing nan woody much costly for Washington. And Israel’s warfare pinch Hamas, which Tehran has agelong provided pinch subject support, arsenic good arsenic nan 2 countries’ caller speech of rocket and drone strikes has only exacerbated that dynamic. The atomic talks person not yet been abandoned. But nan mounting governmental obstacles—combined pinch nan declining inferior of nan deal, owed to Iran’s advances successful uranium enrichment and nan shortened timeline for nan JCPOA’s sunset clauses—now make it almost surely a dormant letter.

The U.S. sanctions that Trump reimposed connected waste and acquisition pinch Iran forced governments and companies from Europe to Asia to extremity their economical engagement pinch Tehran, pinch a peculiarly terrible effect connected Iran’s lipid exports. The resulting home economical tailspin has heightened societal and governmental tensions wrong Iran. But alternatively than moderating nan regime’s behavior, nan heightened unit from Washington seems to person strengthened nan manus of hardliners successful Tehran, who since 2020 emerged arsenic nan large winners successful each parliamentary and statesmanlike predetermination held—until past week.

In a threat statesmanlike predetermination triggered by nan decease of erstwhile President Ebrahim Raisi successful May, Masoud Pezeshkian—a reformist campaigner who advocated for reopening atomic talks pinch nan U.S.—won a astonishment triumph complete a hard-line blimpish candidate. The result serves arsenic a reminder that Iranians’ desire for moderation and alteration has not been extinguished. But Pezeshkian will person to skillfully navigate nan constraints of Iran’s governmental scenery if he is to travel done connected his run schedule of betterment and dialogue, some astatine location and abroad. In nan meantime, nan Iranian organization is progressively caught betwixt nan unit of U.S. sanctions and nan repression of an authoritarian authorities successful Tehran that remains intent connected projecting its powerfulness and power crossed nan region, nary matter nan cost.

WPR has covered Iran successful item and continues to analyse cardinal questions astir what will hap next. Will Pezeshkian’s predetermination lead to a thaw successful relations pinch nan U.S. and a breakthrough successful efforts to resuscitate nan atomic deal? Will Iran fortify its ties pinch Russia and China to antagonistic nan U.S. and Israel? Will extracurricular pressure, mixed pinch long-simmering celebrated grievances astatine home, undermine nan regime’s home control? Below are immoderate of nan highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Our Most Recent Iran Coverage

• Why Pezeshkian’s predetermination victory is simply a double nonaccomplishment for Iran’s conservatives.
• How to publication Iran’s mixed signals connected its atomic program.
• Why Israel came retired up successful its caller standoff pinch Iran.
• What Iran’s caller missile and drone onslaught connected Israel revealed.
• Why Iran’s sham parliamentary elections successful March still sent nan authorities a message.
• All of our Iran coverage.

Editor’s note: This article was primitively published successful July 2019 and is regularly updated.