Polling 'Nostradamus' reveals who Kamala Harris should pick as VP

A historiographer known arsenic nan 'Nostradamus' of statesmanlike elections has revealed who vice-president Kamala Harris should prime arsenic her moving mate. 

Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 retired of nan 10 past elections, said successful a YouTube livestream connected Thursday that Harris' prime was down to 2 VP candidates -Pennsylvania politician Josh Shapiro and Arizona legislator Mark Kelly.

'I don't deliberation a VP prime turns nan election, but a VP prime is incredibly important,' said nan American University professor.  'I deliberation each of nan names that person been vetted are qualified. In my view, it's travel down to two.'

In an question and reply pinch Newsweek, Lichtman added that Shapiro would beryllium a peculiarly bully VP prime fixed he comes from a authorities whose 19 electoral votes are up for grabs.

'Picking personification from a fixed authorities is nary guarantee you're going to triumph that state, but if you want to scope retired to immoderate peculiar state, Pennsylvania is nan astir important authorities successful this election,' nan historiographer said. 

No Democrat has won nan presidency without winning Pennsylvania since Harry Truman successful 1948.

The authorities has voted Democrat for each predetermination wince 1992 isolated from for 2016, erstwhile it went for Donald Trump, who is moving again successful November for nan Republicans. 

Harris is expected to denote her prime arsenic early arsenic Monday, up of her first nationalist quality pinch nan vice statesmanlike nominee connected Tuesday successful Philadelphia.

The short database of candidates reportedly besides includes Minnesota politician Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. 

Last month Lichtman updated his analyzable prediction exemplary to bespeak President Joe Biden dropping retired of nan title and Vice President Kamala Harris go nan presumptive Democratic nominee.

Based connected his exemplary which includes thirteen factors, aliases 'keys' arsenic he calls them, Harris is presently connected people for triumph pinch little than 100 days to spell earlier Election Day.

Lichtman's exemplary measures factors against nan statement presently successful nan White House, which astatine this clip is nan Democrats.

He said he will make his charismatic prediction for nan predetermination adjacent month, but Harris has a mostly of his keys leaning successful her favour to win.

'I scheme to make my charismatic prediction successful August aft nan Democratic convention,' Lichtman wrote connected X. 'See my appraisal beneath connected nan 13 Keys Tracker connected wherever The Keys guidelines NOW.'

The factors giving Harris nan advantage see that she did not look a superior challenger, location has been small threat from 3rd statement candidates truthful far, and nan system is beardown successful nan short and agelong term.

With nan move to Harris, nan White House besides hasn't made a awesome argumentation alteration and nan vice president is not facing a ungraded aliases awesome societal unrest.

Lichtman noted that pinch nan modulation from Biden to Harris arsenic nan presumptive nominee past week, nan Democrats person mislaid 1 advantage: nan incumbency factor.

With Harris and Trump group to look off, nan professor views this title is fundamentally unfastened now.

But he noted Democrats were capable to forestall immoderate further fallout pinch its shakeup pinch nan statement overwhelmingly rallying down Harris alternatively than kicking disconnected a chaotic unfastened superior aliases having different statesmanlike hopefuls jumping into nan title astatine this precocious stage.

'I person not made a last prediction. I've said I will make it aft nan Democratic convention,' Lichtman told C-SPAN.

'But I person said for months, and I proceed to opportunity a batch would person to spell incorrect for Democrats to lose,' he added. 'That could happen, but a batch would person to change.'