MARK ALMOND: World must hold its breath and pray as Israel strikes Hezbollah after rocket attack kills 12 children

What happens adjacent could determine nan destiny of nan full world. After much than 9 months of hopeless fighting against Hamas, Israel whitethorn now beryllium connected nan brink of full cataclysm.

Military action against Hezbollah, Iran's largest and best-trained proxy group, successful neighbouring Lebanon, could bring warfare connected a wholly different scale, a warfare which Israel is acold from definite to win.

It is simply a warfare that mightiness easy impact Britain – not only successful supplying arms and aerial screen for Israel, but perchance hurling this state into equipped conflict pinch Hezbollah. Such a warfare would inevitably person a seismic effect connected our home politics, already riven by pro-Palestinian protests.

America's statesmanlike election, successful unprecedented chaos arsenic it is, will beryllium upended if Iran openly declares its subject support for Hezbollah. That's 1 short measurement distant from a warfare that engulfs nan full of nan Middle East.

And successful nan eventual nightmare scenario, if Israel determines that its very beingness is threatened and deploys its atomic arsenal, past world warfare would almost surely ensue, pinch Russia and Pakistan apt to beryllium among nan first to react.

This whitethorn seem alarmist to anyone who has followed nan Israel Defence Forces' unrelenting run against Hamas, successful nan aftermath of nan October 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis. 

The battering of nan Gaza Strip, which has reduced full cities to rubble and forced much than 1.5million group into exile camps, has fixed nan world an illusion of Israel's invincibility.

This is acold from nan reality. Israel is exhausted by nan conflict. Previous wars successful nan nation's 76-year history person been brief, decisive affairs, and this is neither.

After astir 300 days of conflict, not only does premier curate Benjamin Netanyahu's hardline furniture proceed to defy world calls for a ceasefire, but nan guerrilla service of Hamas fighters has proved worryingly resilient. 

Their nonaccomplishment to swipe retired Hamas will nary uncertainty interest Israelis. And Hezbollah is nary Hamas. It is acold larger, pinch nan support of astatine slightest 2.5million Lebanese, almost half nan population.

In fact, nan group rules nan state southbound of Beirut and its leaders person been preparing for warfare against Israel for years, backed by immense backing and training from Iran.

Their fighters are not a unpaid militia hiding among nan civilian organization and scurrying done tunnels, but a highly organised, well-equipped, disciplined army, dug into heavy fortified positions.

Whether Saturday's bulldoze of 12 children successful a rocket onslaught was intended arsenic nan starting weapon for a warfare is not clear. It was surely an outrageous provocation.

Israel has already retaliated pinch aerial strikes against targets successful Lebanon. And location is simply a threat that if its consequence to nan killings is not sufficiently forceful, past Hezbollah and its Iranian paymasters will consciousness emboldened.

But if Israel pursues further escalation, arsenic seems probable, it couldn't travel astatine a amended clip for nan terrorists. This could commencement a warfare astir Israelis don't want, which will undermine Netanyahu. Already 120,000 group person fled their homes successful nan northbound because of Hezbollah rocket attacks.

Meanwhile, successful nan US, Kamala Harris, nan Democrat campaigner to switch President Joe Biden successful nan White House, will look a overseas argumentation crisis. If she advocates backing Israel, she will alienate Muslim voters, while attracting nary Republicans to her broadside – Donald Trump is 100 per cent pro-Israel.

But for Keir Starmer nan situation could beryllium moreover worse. Many Labour MPs are furious astatine his past support for Israel. Protests connected Britain's streets could quickly escalate to rioting, particularly successful cities pinch ample Muslim populations, specified arsenic Birmingham and Leeds.

And if nan RAF is deployed to protect Israel against rocket attacks erstwhile again, Hezbollah could onslaught astatine our aerial bases successful Cyprus, which is only 60 miles from nan Lebanese coast.

So often successful caller months nan world has watched, held its activity and prayed. This time, nan risks are higher than ever.

Mark Almond is head of nan Crisis Research Institute, Oxford.