'Election Nostradamus' who's correctly predicted every presidential winner since 1984 reveals surprising thoughts about how JD Vance could sway outcome

A forecaster known arsenic nan 'Nostradamus' of statesmanlike elections gave his return connected really JD Vance could sway nan result betwixt Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 

Professor Allan Lichtman of American University has accurately called nan victor of astir each presidential election since President Reagan's reelection successful 1984.

Earlier this week, aft updating his analyzable prediction exemplary to reflect President Joe Biden dropping retired of nan title and Vice President Kamala Harris go nan presumptive Democratic nominee, he said Harris was connected people for victory.

On his YouTube transmission Friday, Lichtman believes portion of nan logic for Harris' advantage is that Vance would beryllium a 'horror show' if he had to service arsenic president.

'I don't deliberation nan VP prime turns nan predetermination but a VP prime is incredibly important. That's why JD Vance was specified a disastrous pick; he would beryllium a scary show arsenic president.'

He added that nan constituent to picking a moving mate is having personification to service if nan president dies aliases resigns, which has happened connected 9 occasions successful US history. 

Lichtman told Newsweek that Vance presents a problem successful that Trump comes disconnected arsenic much of a mean than nan Ohio Senator. 

'In immoderate ways, his views are moreover much utmost than those of Donald Trump. For example, connected assistance to Ukraine aliases wanting a nationalist prohibition connected abortion pinch nary objection for rape, incest, aliases wellness of nan mother. And Vance has go a lightning rod for criticism,' he said.

Harris, who is slated to denote her prime for VP connected Monday, has seen a boost successful nan polls since announcing her volition to run. 

Based connected Lichtman's exemplary which includes thirteen factors, aliases 'keys' arsenic he calls them, Harris is presently connected people for triumph pinch little than 100 days to spell earlier Election Day. 

Lichtman's exemplary measures factors against nan statement presently successful nan White House, which astatine this clip is nan Democrats.

He said he will make his charismatic prediction for nan predetermination adjacent month, but Harris has a mostly of his keys leaning successful her favour to win. 

'I scheme to make my charismatic prediction successful August aft nan Democratic convention,' Lichtman wrote connected X. 'See my appraisal beneath connected nan 13 Keys Tracker connected wherever The Keys guidelines NOW.'

The factors giving Harris nan advantage see that she did not look a superior challenger, location has been small threat from 3rd statement candidates truthful far, and nan system is beardown successful nan short and agelong term. 

With nan move to Harris, nan White House besides hasn't made a awesome argumentation alteration and nan vice president is not facing a ungraded aliases awesome societal unrest. 

Lichtman noted that pinch nan modulation from Biden to Harris arsenic nan presumptive nominee past week, nan Democrats person mislaid 1 advantage: nan incumbency factor. 

With Harris and Trump group to look off, nan professor views this title is fundamentally unfastened now.

But he noted Democrats were capable to forestall immoderate further fallout pinch its shakeup pinch nan statement overwhelmingly rallying down Harris alternatively than kicking disconnected a chaotic unfastened superior aliases having different statesmanlike hopefuls jumping into nan title astatine this precocious stage.

'I person not made a last prediction. I've said I will make it aft nan Democratic convention,' Lichtman told C-SPAN.

'But I person said for months, and I proceed to opportunity a batch would person to spell incorrect for Democrats to lose,' he added. 'That could happen, but a batch would person to change.' 

Lichtman besides said nan caller power injected into nan Harris run could person a affirmative effect connected respective keys for her including little group voting for 3rd statement campaigner Robert Kennedy Jr. and it could further stall societal unrest. 

'It has a mixed result, Biden's dropping out, and nan presumptive information of Harris,' he said. 'But it doesn't fundamentally alteration my appraisal that a batch would person to spell incorrect for nan Democrats to lose.'

Lichtman's forecast comes arsenic polls show nan statesmanlike title remains highly adjacent pinch Harris astatine nan apical of nan ticket. 

An mean of nan latest polls shows Trump up little than 2 points, according to Real Clear Politics. 

When it comes to nan polls retired of cardinal battleground states, location is besides a tight title betwixt Trump and Harris now that Biden is disconnected nan Democratic ticket. 

But nan latest polling does show location has been a jump successful enthusiasm among Democrats arsenic Lichtman noted.  Harris' support since becoming nan presumptive statesmanlike nominee has besides jumped successful caller days.