Don’t Assume Venezuela’s Military Will Stand by Maduro

If votes unsocial determine nan outcome, Venezuela’s presidential election scheduled for July 28 could spell nan extremity for President Nicolas Maduro and his authoritarian government. That’s why galore observers mobility whether Maduro will judge a triumph for guidance campaigner Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, pointing to each nan options astatine his disposal for holding onto power, ranging from rigging nan count successful a adjacent title to resorting to convulsive repression successful nan look of an overwhelming guidance victory.

But Maduro’s calculus is not nan only facet connected nan authorities broadside that deserves attention. As a civilian who relies connected nan subject arsenic a pillar of his power, Maduro must besides see an important and still uncertain factor: really nan Venezuelan subject would respond to an electoral result that, if respected, would bring an extremity to nan agelong power of Venezuela’s Chavista regime.

The consolidation of populist successful Latin America successful caller decades and nan resulting scarcity of coup attempts successful nan region make it difficult to constituent to nonstop humanities parallels for nan prime facing Venezuela’s military. Yet location person been important junctures wherever subject coups were considered and only averted acknowledgment to nan inaugural of influential subject officers.