ANALYSIS: In Northern Ontario, peril for Liberals, opportunity for Conservatives, NDP

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre opens a week of campaigning for votes successful Northern Ontario connected Monday pinch a rally successful Fort Frances, Ont., successful nan riding of Thunder Bay—Rainy River, a region that a small-c blimpish campaigner has not won since 1930.

The incumbent MP for nan riding, a Liberal and erstwhile emergency room expert Marcus Powlowski, is not amazed astatine Poilievre’s chutzpah, looking for capable votes successful a riding to do what nary leader of a blimpish statement has done successful 90 years — namely, triumph complete nan voters successful this immense riding, which includes nan Fort William portion of Thunder Bay, Atikokan, Rainy River, and Fort Frances.

“This whitethorn beryllium news to you,” Powlowski said pinch a wry grin during a caller interview, “but nan Liberals aren’t precisely riding nan crest of fame astatine nan moment. So I deliberation he thinks everything’s possible.”

Indeed. A Global News study of nan existent authorities of national polling trends successful Ontario shows that location is simply a chopped anticipation that nan Liberals, who presently clasp six of bluish Ontario’s 10 seats, mightiness beryllium unopen out, thing that hasn’t happened since nan 2011 wide predetermination which, coincidentally, was nan past clip — and nan only clip — nan modern Conservative Party of Canada won a nationalist mostly government.

Both Conservatives and New Democrats judge location is an opportunity to prime up seats successful nan region astatine nan disbursal of nan Liberals.

But successful summation to polling headwinds, astir incumbent Liberals must besides woody pinch a radically changed electoral map. Instead of 10 ridings for a region that stretches from Muskoka’s cottage state successful nan southbound to nan Manitoba separator successful nan northwest, location will beryllium conscionable nine.

Terry Sheehan, nan incumbent Liberal for nan existent riding of Sault Ste. Marie, is blaming Conservatives for that driblet successful nan region’s practice arsenic he campaigns this summertime for votes successful his importantly expanded riding of Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma.  Sheehan’s aged riding was mostly conscionable nan metropolis of Sault Ste. Marie but now it stretches each nan measurement from nan north-of-Lake-Superior organization of White River successful its northwest area to Elliot Lake and communities connected nan northbound statement of Lake Huron — a day’s drive.

“The Conservatives wrote a dissenting study supporting 1 little sound successful bluish Ontario. Shameful!” Sheehan said successful an question and reply past week from Wawa wherever he was announcing national backing for economical improvement successful nan region.

Even though Sheehan is nan incumbent, nan quirk of nan riding re-draw has him looking uphill. If nan riding of Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma had existed astatine nan clip of nan 2021 election, it would person elected a Conservative MP. The transposition of votes done by Elections Canada shows 35 per cent successful Sheehan’s caller riding voted Conservative successful 2021; 32 per cent voted Liberal and 26 per cent voted NDP.

Those three-way splits are communal successful bluish Ontario and lend to its governmental volatility.

Powlowski is 1 of conscionable 3 MPs who has not had a riding change. The others beryllium to nan 2 Conservatives, Kenora’s Eric Melillo and Parry Sound-Muskoka’s Scott Aitchison. Powlowski is assured he’ll clasp successful nan adjacent wide predetermination based connected those three-way splits.

“I won by 2,000 votes,” he said. “I was astir 2,000 up of some nan Conservatives and nan NDP. And fixed nan emergence successful fame of nan Conservative Party versus nan Liberal Party, I deliberation nan mathematics is specified that it looks for illustration [Poilievre] has a chance, but I don’t deliberation he has rather arsenic bully a chance arsenic he thinks he has.”

On Tuesday, Poilievre’s circuit will return him to Wawa successful Sheehan’s caller riding and past connected to Hearst, a Franco-Ontarian organization that is presently portion of nan riding of Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasking but which, astatine nan adjacent wide election, will find itself successful Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk.

Trending Now

That caller Kapuskasing riding is simply a re-worked and enlarged type of nan riding of Timmins—James Bay, which New Democrat Charlie Angus has represented since 2004. Angus, 61, has decided to discontinue astatine nan extremity of this Parliament, partially because of nan magnitude of recreation and activity it will return to link pinch each nan caller communities and voters successful what is 1 of nan largest ridings successful nan full country. But Angus said, he too, has noticed what Powlowski has: that nan Liberals nary longer look to beryllium arsenic ascendant successful nan north.

In an question and reply from his location successful Cobalt, Ont., Angus said astir nan “collapse of nan Liberals” successful his region.

“I’m sensing that a batch of mediate crushed voters are getting worried because Poilievre hasn’t done nan normal thing, which is entreaty to nan hardcore guidelines and past pivot to nan halfway and coming yourself arsenic fresh for government,” Angus said. “He doesn’t look to beryllium willing successful that.”

This is not Poilievre’s first circuit done bluish Ontario. And Angus’s riding is simply a peculiar target wherever nan Conservative campaigner Gaetan Mallette hopes to win. Angus refers to Poilievre’s rallies successful nan region arsenic nan “rage tour” and concedes they generated important liking nan first 2 times astir but he thinks those benignant of rallies are now stale.

“[Voters here] consciousness that he comes successful and treats our region arsenic a shape prop and past throws blasted around, throws gasoline connected nan fire, and past leaves,” Angus said. “[Voters here] want their MP to beryllium reasonable, approachable, friends and pragmatic.”

Neither of nan 2 Conservative MPs successful nan region responded to requests for an interview. But Poilievre’s agency did rumor an email connection connected behalf of Aitchison, nan incumbent for Parry-Sound Muskoka.

“While Canadians successful communities crossed Northern Ontario suffer, Jagmeet Singh and his extremist costly conjugation MPs proceed to prop up Justin Trudeau and sellout their constituents to protect their ain pensions,” nan connection said.

“Pierre Poilievre and communal consciousness Conservatives person a connection of dream for Canadians that is resonating pinch those surviving successful Northern Ontario. “